タイラー・コーエンが「インフレは貴兄が思っているより高い(Inflation is higher than you think)」と題したMRエントリで紹介しているが、Billion Prices Projectで知られるハーバードのAlberto Cavalloが表題のNBER論文を上げている(原題は「Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets」)。

There is a growing awareness among academics, central bankers, and the financial media about the challenges of measuring and interpreting inflation during the Pandemic. A major concern is that consumption patterns are greatly impacted by the lockdowns and social-distancing behaviors, introducing significant bias into the measurement of CPI inflation.
I use estimates of the changes in consumption expenditures, obtained from US credit and debit card transactions by Chetty et al. (2020), to update the basket of CPI weights and study the effect on US inflation. I also provide estimates for the potential impact in 16 other countries. In most cases, I show that the Covid price index has more inflation than the official CPI. By April 2020, for example, the annual US all-items inflation rate was 1.06% with the Covid basket and only 0.35% with the official CPI weights. The difference is large and is growing over time, as consumers spend more on food and similar categories experiencing inflation, and less on transportation and related categories with significant deflation.
These results have important implications for policy-makers trying to respond to the crisis, as they suggest that the cost of living for the average consumer is higher than implied by the official CPI. The welfare implications are particularly relevant for people losing their jobs during the Pandemic. To further understand this impact, future research could try to estimate the Covid basket of different population groups, including low-income households.
私は、Chetty et al.(2020*1)が米国のクレジットとデビットカードの取引データから得た消費支出の変化の推計値を用いてCPIバスケットのウエイトを更新し、米国のインフレへの影響を調べた。私はまた、他の16ヶ国における潜在的な影響も推計した。大半のケースで、Covid価格指数のインフレは公的なCPIよりも高くなっていることが示される。例えば2020年4月の米国の全品目の年間インフレ率はCovidバスケットで1.06%だったが、公的なCPIウエイトでは0.35%に過ぎなかった。この差は大きく、時間が経つにつれ拡大している。消費者は、インフレとなっている食料やそれに似たカテゴリへの支出を増やし、顕著なデフレとなっている輸送およびその関連カテゴリへの支出を減らしているからである。




*1:cf. ここ。ChettyらはOpportunity Insightsという研究組織(NPO)を立ち上げている。