というNBER論文が上がっているungated(SSRN)版)。原題は「Mutual Fund Revenue Sharing in 401(k) Plans」で、著者はVeronika K. Pool(ヴァンダービルト大)、Clemens Sialm(テキサス大学オースティン校)、Irina Stefanescu(FRB)。

Recordkeepers in DC pension plans are often paid indirectly in the form of revenue sharing from third-party funds on the menu. We show that these arrangements affect the investment menu of 401(k) plans. Revenue-sharing funds are more likely to be added to the menu and are less likely to be deleted. Overall, revenue-sharing plans are more expensive as higher expense ratios are not offset by lower direct fees or by superior performance. Rebates increase with the market power of the recordkeeper suggesting that third-party funds may revenue share to gain access to retirement assets.

新古典派メカニズムが不在の時に戦争は協力を促さない! トルコの徴集兵の自然実験による実証結果

というNBER論文が上がっている。原題は「War Does not Foster Cooperation when Neoclassical Mechanisms are Absent! Evidence from a Natural Experiment among Turkish Conscripts」で、著者はArzu Kibris(ウォーリック大)、Resul Cesur(コネチカット大)。

Exploiting a natural experiment and an innovative survey design, we study the social and political legacies of armed conflict exposure (ACE) among Turkish conscripts. Our empirical framework identifies the causal impact and the mediating pathways for the average male randomly picked from the population. Contrary to the arguments that ACE fosters prosociality and posttraumatic growth, we find little evidence that ACE promotes cooperative behaviors. As the study design eliminates the need for social insurance, security concerns, and community-level paradigm shifts, and our analysis rules out labor market outcomes from the list of the usual suspects, we conclude that violence exposure may not be sufficient to foster prosociality in the absence of favorable neoclassical mediating pathways boosting demand for cooperation. Moreover, we show that intense ACE increases opposition to peaceful means of conflict resolution and animosity towards minorities and promotes the tendency to support right-wing political parties. Auxiliary analysis nominates war-driven grievances and the normalization of violence in everyday life as the likely explanations. These findings are consistent with (i) evolutionary theories linking war exposure to out-group derogation and adherence to local social norms and (ii) the arguments that war-driven grievances may lead to the perpetuation of violence.
自然実験と革新的な調査設計を利用して我々は、トルコの徴集兵に戦闘体験が残す社会的および政治的な影響を調べた。我々の実証的枠組みは、ランダムに徴集された平均的な男性における因果効果と媒介経路を識別する。戦闘体験が向社会性と心的外傷後成長をもたらすという議論に反し、我々は戦闘体験が協力行動を促進するという実証結果をほぼ見い出さなかった。研究設計によって社会保障の必要性、安全面の懸念、および共同体レベルのパラダイムシフトは取り除かれており、我々の分析によって労働市場における状況が原因候補から外されているため、協力の必要性を高めるような好ましい新古典派的な媒介経路が無い場合、暴力体験だけでは向社会性をもたらすのに十分ではない、と我々は結論する。また、強烈な戦闘体験は、平和的な紛争解決手段への反対と少数派への敵意を高め、右派政党への支持傾向を促進する、ということを我々は示す。補助的な分析によれば、戦争に起因する不満と日常生活における暴力の常態化が、その有力な説明候補となる。以上の結果は、(i) 戦争体験を余所者の敵視*1ならびに地域社会の規範への固執に結び付ける進化理論、および、(ii) 戦争に起因する不満が暴力の永続化につながるという議論、と整合的である。


というNBER論文が上がっているungated版)。原題は「Teachers’ Use of Class Time and Student Achievement」で、著者はSimon M. Burgess(ブリストル大)、Shenila Rawal(Oxford Partnership for Education Research & Analysis (OPERA))、Eric S. Taylor(ハーバード大)。

We study teachers’ choices about how to allocate class time across different instructional activities, for example, lecturing, open discussion, or individual practice. Our data come from secondary schools in England, specifically classes preceding GCSE exams. Students score higher in math when their teacher devotes more class time to individual practice and assessment. In contrast, students score higher in English if there is more discussion and work with classmates. Class time allocation predicts test scores separate from the quality of the teacher’s instruction during the activities. These results suggest opportunities to improve student achievement without changes in teachers’ skills.

一般の人々のインフレヘッジ? 個人向けTIPSファンドの資金フローによる実証結果

というNBER論文が上がっているungated版)。原題は「Inflation Hedging on Main Street? Evidence from Retail TIPS Fund Flows」で、著者はStefan Nagel(シカゴ大)、Zhen Yan(ミシガン大)。

Households participating in financial markets pay attention to inflation news when making their investment decisions, even in an environment of mostly low and stable inflation. ETFs and open-ended mutual funds holding Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) receive inflows from retail investors, and nominal Treasury ETF experience outflows, when long-horizon market-based inflation expectations measures increase. Changes in household survey expectations or in measures of inflation uncertainty do not contribute much in explaining retail TIPS fund flows. Retail flows into TIPS funds are asymmetric, with strong reactions only to positive inflation news, and sticky, with flow responses to news gradually playing out over several months. Retail investors appear to pay some attention to regular Federal Reserve announcements, but major events such as the ``taper tantrum'' in May 2013, the presidential election in November 2016, and the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020 are associated with particularly large retail TIPS fund flows.


超過死亡率の高さとその原因に関する議論が最近日本で話題になったが、海外の状況はどうなのかとぐぐってみたところ、Health Feedbackという組織*1の11/2付け(11/28更新)の表題の記事に行き当たった。原題は「What can explain the excess mortality in the U.S. and Europe in 2022?」で、著者はPablo Rougerie。以下はその結論部。

Understanding the excess mortality observed in 2022, especially during its second half, is challenging. This is because there can be multiple independent factors contributing to a higher mortality rate and they may contribute indirectly to the mortality in various ways. In addition, the phenomenon is still very recent at the time of writing and researchers are still in the process of collecting and analyzing mortality data from summer 2022.
However, based on the data we do have, we can already identify some likely contributing factors to this persistent excess mortality.
First, the virus SARS-CoV-2 is still circulating and epidemiological data show that COVID-19 deaths still represent a significant part of the excess mortality.
Second, the exceptional heat waves in July and August 2022 are likely to have increased the risk of death, as excess heat can lead to death directly or indirectly.
Third, the healthcare systems of many countries are still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic. Many hospitals remain underfunded, underequipped, and understaffed, leading to suboptimal care for patients.
But one thing we do know isn’t contributing to excess mortality is COVID-19 vaccines, contrary to claims by some. As we demonstrated earlier, there’s no correlation between vaccination coverage and the amount of excess mortality, nor is excess mortality positively correlated with the deployment of public COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. Therefore, the evidence available contradicts this claim.


というNBER論文が上がっているungated(SSRN)版)。原題は「Experience Rating as an Automatic Stabilizer」で、著者はMark Duggan(スタンフォード大)、Andrew C. Johnston(UCマーセッド)、Audrey Guo(サンタクララ大)。

Unemployment insurance taxes are experience-rated to penalize firms that dismiss workers. We examine whether experience rating acts as an automatic stabilizer in the labor market. We exploit the fact that penalties for layoffs vary by state using detailed data on state tax schedules, and we measure whether firms react less to labor-demand shocks in the presence of greater layoff penalties. The average penalty for layoffs reduces firm adjustment to negative shocks by 11 percent. The results imply experience rating has a stabilizing influence on labor markets. Experience rating saved, for instance, nearly a million jobs in the Great Recession.


というNBER論文をアセモグルらが上げている同じNBERサイトのungated版)。原題は「Automation and the Workforce: A Firm-Level View from the 2019 Annual Business Survey」で、著者はDaron Acemoglu(MIT)、Gary W. Anderson(アメリカ国立科学財団)、David N. Beede(センサス局)、Cathy Buffington(同)、Eric E. Childress(ジョージメイソン大)、Emin Dinlersoz(センサス局)、Lucia S. Foster(同)、Nathan Goldschlag(同)、John C. Haltiwanger(メリーランド大)、Zachary Kroff(センサス局)、Pascual Restrepo(ボストン大)、Nikolas Zolas(センサス局)。

This paper describes the adoption of automation technologies by US firms across all economic sectors by leveraging a new module introduced in the 2019 Annual Business Survey, conducted by the US Census Bureau in partnership with the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES). The module collects data from over 300,000 firms on the use of five advanced technologies: AI, robotics, dedicated equipment, specialized software, and cloud computing. The adoption of these technologies remains low (especially for AI and robotics), varies substantially across industries, and concentrates on large and young firms. However, because larger firms are much more likely to adopt them, 12-64% of US workers and 22-72% of manufacturing workers are exposed to these technologies. Firms report a variety of motivations for adoption, including automating tasks previously performed by labor. Consistent with the use of these technologies for automation, adopters have higher labor productivity and lower labor shares. In particular, the use of these technologies is associated with a 11.4% higher labor productivity, which accounts for 20-30% of the difference in labor productivity between large firms and the median firm in an industry. Adopters report that these technologies raised skill requirements and led to greater demand for skilled labor but brought limited or ambiguous effects to their employment levels.