というNBER論文をサマーズらが上げている。原題は「Comparing Past and Present Inflation」で、著者はMarijn A. Bolhuis(IMF)、Judd N. L. Cramer(独立研究者)、Lawrence H. Summers(ハーバード大)。

New paper shows past & present CPI inflation are more similar than official data suggests. When correcting for change in how housing inflation is measured, we find a return to target core inflation will require @ same disinflation as achieved under Volcker
Before 1983 measurement of shelter inflation captured changes in the expenses of homeowners, taking house prices and mortgage interest rates as inputs. Monetary policy thus mechanically affected inflation, due to the effect of the federal funds rate on mortgage rates.
During the tightening cycles of the 1960s and 1970s, shelter inflation increased sharply, only to fall precipitously when the pace of tightening slowed. The Fed looked more powerful at halting inflation than it would have been using current methods.
In 1983, the BLS exchanged homeownership costs for owners’ equivalent rent (OER). Since then, shelter CPI has been much less volatile and much more correlated with rent CPI. We construct new series that estimate what CPI inflation would have been if the BLS had used OER pre-1983.
Today, housing will serve as a significant hindrance to rapid disinflation whereas it used to move the series lower. The effect of current record private sector rent growth will enter the index with a lag as we discussed in our previous paper.
The disinflation of the early 1980s achieved by Paul Volcker has served as the exemplum of the power of hawkish monetary policy. Our analysis reveals that current inflation, especially core inflation, is considerably closer to previous peaks than in the official series.
Measurement also affects conclusions drawn from comparisons with high inflation periods in the early 1950s and early 1970s. We show that due to the greater weight of transitory goods components in the index, past inflation spikes were higher and more short-lived than today’s.
When we construct headline and core inflation using current index weights and correcting for the treatment of housing, we estimate that current core CPI inflation is similar or higher than the peaks of the early 1950s and early 1970s.
Some commenters have suggested that policymakers can decrease inflation towards desired levels without macroeconomic consequences. The analysis in this paper casts doubt on some optimistic interpretations that underplay the magnitude of the disinflation required to reach target.
@juddcramer @ma_bolhuis and I have made our series available for future research at: http://larrysummers.com/2022/06/03/comparing-past-and-present-inflation/




@juddcramer @ma_bolhuis と私は、今後の研究のために我々の系列を次のサイトで利用できるようにしている: http://larrysummers.com/2022/06/03/comparing-past-and-present-inflation/

またサマーズは、NYTのJeanna Smialekがこの論文について呟いたツイートもRTしている。そちらのスレッドでは、論文から以下の数字を引用している。

  • 公式統計の1980年のコアCPIのピークは13.6%
  • 再計算したコアCPIのピークは9.1%
  • 今日のコアCPIは6.1%。



*1:cf. ここ

*2:cf. ここ