昨日エントリで触れたベックワースは、George Selgin、Berrak Bahadirとの最近の共著論文に言及している。
以下はその論文「The productivity gap: Monetary policy, the subprime boom, and the post-2001 productivity surge」の要旨。

It is widely believed that, in the wake of the crash, the Fed kept the federal funds target rate too low for too long, inadvertently contributing to the subprime boom. We attribute this and other Fed departures from a “neutral” policy stance to the Fed's failure to respond appropriately to exceptional rates of total factor productivity growth. We then show how the Fed, by adhering to a nominal GDP growth rate target, might have succeeded in maintaining such a neutral stance.


Plenty of writers have claimed that the Fed fueled the sub-prime boom by holding interest rates too low for too long after the dot-com crash. But hardly anyone has tried to explain why it did so.
Our argument, in brief, is that the Fed blew it by treating the exceptionally high post-2001 productivity growth rate, not as warranting an upward revision of the Fed’s interest-rate target, as neoclassical theory would suggest, but as an opportunity to maintain a below-natural interest rate target without risking a corresponding increase in inflation.