というNBER論文が上がっているungated版)。原題は「People's Understanding of Inflation」で、著者はAlberto Binetti(ボッコーニ大)、Francesco Nuzzi(ハーバード大)、Stefanie Stantcheva(同)。

This paper studies people's understanding of inflation—their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs—and the policies supported to mitigate its effects. We design a new, detailed online survey based on the rich existing literature in economics with two experimental components—a conjoint experiment and an information experiment—to examine how well public views align with established economic theories. Our key findings show that the major perceived causes of inflation include government actions, such as increased foreign aid and war-related expenditures, alongside rises in production costs attributed to recent events like the COVID-19 pandemic, oil price fluctuations, and supply chain disruptions. Respondents' anticipate many negative consequences of inflation but the most noted one is the increased complexity and difficulty in household decision-making. Partisan differences emerge distinctly, with Republicans more likely to attribute inflation to government policies and foresee broader negative outcomes, whereas Democrats anticipate greater inequality effects. Inflation is perceived as an unambiguously negative phenomenon without any potential positive economic correlates. Notably, there is a widespread belief that managing inflation can be achieved without significant trade-offs, such as reducing economic activity or increasing unemployment. These perceptions are hard to move experimentally. In terms of policy responses, there is resistance to monetary tightening, consistent with the perceived absence of trade-offs and the belief that it is unnecessary to reduce economic activity to fight inflation. The widespread misconception that inflation rises following increases in interest rates even leads to support for rate cuts to reduce inflation. There is a clear preference for policies that are perceived to have other benefits, such as reducing government debt in progressive ways or increasing corporate taxes, and for support for vulnerable households, despite potential inflationary effects.

Stantchevaは先になぜ我々はインフレを嫌うのか? - himaginary’s diaryで紹介した研究を出しており、今回の論文でも参照している。そちらの論文では人々のインフレ嫌いに焦点が当てられていたが、今回の論文でも、人々がインフレを本質的に悪しきものと認識し、他の悪いことと一緒に起きるもの、と考える結果、トレードオフ抜きに退治できるはず、と考えるようになった、という解釈を示している。長引くデフレに苦しみ、インフレの利点が喧伝された日本で同様の調査を行った場合にどのような結果が得られるか、興味が持たれるところではある。

*1:導入部では「Furthermore, we carried out two experiments. The first is a conjoint experiment to estimate people’s preferences over inflation and unemployment, i.e., how they balance their concerns about inflation against unemployment. The second is an information experiment that provided information about the trade-offs between inflation and economic activity, and the limitations policymakers face in managing these issues.」と説明されている。