というNBER論文が上がっている（H/T タイラー・コーエン、ungated版へのリンクがある解説記事）。原題は「Rebuilding Ukraine's Cities: Maximizing Benefits and Minimizing Costs」で、著者はEdward L. Glaeser（ハーバード大）、Martina Kirchberger（トリニティ・カレッジ・ダブリン）、Andrii Parkhomenko（南カリフォルニア大）。
以下はその要旨。
This paper discusses the rebuilding of Ukrainian cities. We start by outlining key facts about Ukraine and its cities: (i) the country’s population is declining; (ii) there is a shift in demand for housing from east to west; (iii) Kyiv’s advantage is growing; (iv) house prices are rising in Kyiv and western cities, (v) Ukraine’s cities are slow and congested. We then present a theoretical framework for maximizing the benefits of Ukraine’s rebuilding effort to highlight the welfare effects of different allocations of post-war infrastructure. Finally, we consider the cost curve for reconstruction, as determined, in particular, by the cost of materials, labor, the industrial organization of the building industry and public practices in procurement and regulation. We highlight three broad strategies for shifting the cost curve: openness, standardization and investing-in-investing. We conclude by outlining areas for future research.
（拙訳）
本稿はウクライナの都市の再建を論じる。まず、ウクライナとその都市について基本的な事実をまとめる。(i) 同国の人口は減少している*1。(ii) 東から西への住宅需要のシフトがある。(iii) キーウの優位性は拡大している*2。(iv) キーウと西部の都市で住宅価格は上昇している*3。(v) ウクライナの都市は車の走行が遅く渋滞している*4。次に我々は、ウクライナの再建の努力の便益を最大化させるための理論的枠組みを提示し、戦後のインフラの相異なる配分の厚生効果を明らかにする。また我々は、再建の費用曲線を検討する。費用曲線は、とりわけ原材料費、労働費用、建築業界の産業組織、調達と規制の公的な事務慣行によって決定される。費用曲線を変化させるための3つの大まかな戦略を我々は強調する。開放性、標準化、および投資への投資である。結論では、今後研究すべき領域を概観する。
キーウと他の都市との非対称性について本文では
This asymmetry between Kyiv and the shrinking cities relates to reconstruction and future city growth. Davis and Weinstein (2002) *5 famously found that Japanese cities returned to pre-war trajectories regardless of the extent of destruction during World War II. But that occurred amidst massive urban growth in post-war Japan. We suspect that the level of destruction will have permanent effects on eastern Ukrainian cities, especially if those cities are not rebuilt, because the demand for space in those cities is below their cost of supplying space. This asymmetry between growing and declining places will play a role in our assessment of the returns to building in different parts of Ukraine.
とも書いており、日本の戦後の再建のようなわけにはいかないだろう、と論じている。
日本についてはまた、標準化の文脈において、土地利用を12種類*6に限定しているやり方が参考になるのではないか、という形でも引き合いに出している。
*1:本文では「First, the country’s population is declining, largely because of a low fertility rate. The combination of declining population and durable housing implies that Ukraine began the war with an abundance of housing, although that housing may not have been in the more desirable places or of the most desirable quality.」と書いている。
*2:本文では「Third, the regional advantage of Kyiv appears to be growing. It has added population, while other large cities have shrunk, and its share of GDP has risen even faster than its share of overall population.」と書いている。
*3:本文では、「Fourth, housing prices are low in most of the country and most of the housing stock was built before 1990. These facts support the view that the country was essentially overbuilt, at least in 2022. If pre-war city populations reflect durable housing not demand (as in Glaeser and Gyourko (2005) ), then the case that reconstruction should not follow pre-war patterns becomes stronger. Also, if pre-war patterns reflect housing supply rather than demand, then failing to rebuild low demand areas will have profound impacts on future population levels.」として、キーウ以外の大部分の都市にやや厳しい評価を下している。Glaeser and Gyourko (2005)はGLAESER, E. L. AND J. GYOURKO (2005): “Urban decline and durable housing,” Journal of political economy, 113, 345–375.。
*4:本文では「Fifth, even before the war, Ukraine’s cities were often congested and slow even when the number of drivers was low. These facts suggest that expanding and improving infrastructure, like roads and public transit, may be at least as important as rebuilding housing.」と書いている。
*5:Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity - American Economic Association。
*6:cf. これ、これ、用途地域 - Wikipedia。田園住居地域が2017年の都市計画法改正により新設され、2018年4月から導入されたことで今は13種類になっているとの由。
