というFRB論文をMostly Ecoomicsが紹介している。原題は「Exchange Rate Elasticities of International Tourism and the Role of Dominant Currency Pricing」で、著者はDing Ding（IMF）、Yannick Timmer（FRB）。
以下はその要旨。
In this paper, we estimate exchange rate elasticities of international tourism. Both the bilateral exchange rate and the U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to tourism origin countries are important drivers of tourism flows. The U.S. dollar exchange rate is more important for tourism destination countries with higher U.S. dollar borrowing, pointing toward a complementarity between U.S. dollar pricing and financing. Country-specific dominant currencies (CSDCs) play only a minor role on average but are important for tourism-dependent countries and those with a high concentration of foreign tourists. Consistent with dominant currency pricing, we also find that local hotel prices do increase strongly when the domestic currency depreciates against the U.S. dollar. The importance of the U.S. dollar exchange rate represents a strong piece of evidence of dominant currency pricing (DCP) in the international trade of services. The results suggest that the benefits of exchange rate flexibility for tourism-dependent countries may be weaker than previously thought and that a broad appreciation of the U.S. dollar is associated with a significant decline in tourism flows globally.
（拙訳）
本稿で我々は、国際観光の為替の弾力性を推計する。二国間為替相場と、観光客の出身国の米ドル為替相場の両方が、観光客のフローにおける重要な要因となる。米ドルでの借り入れが多い観光目的国では、米ドル相場がより重要であり、そのことは米ドルによる価格付けと資金調達の間の相補性を示している*1。各国固有の支配的通貨*2は、平均的には小さな役割しか果たさないが、観光に依存する国と、海外観光客の集中度が高い国にとっては重要である。支配的通貨の価格付けと整合的に*3、各国通貨が米ドルに対して減価すると地元のホテルの価格が確かに大きく上昇することも我々は見い出した。米ドル相場の重要性は、サービスの国際貿易における支配的通貨の価格付けに関する強力な一つの証拠になる。この結果は、観光に依存する国にとって為替相場の柔軟性の便益はこれまで考えられてきたよりも小さい可能性を示している。また、米ドルの広範な増価は世界の観光客のフローの有意な低下と結び付いていることを示している。
*1:本文では「The average price and quantity elasticities mask significant heterogeneity across countries. One potential explanation for the cross-country variation in DCP is the complementarities between U.S. dollar pricing and financing (Gopinath and Stein, 2020). When companies borrow in the U.S. dollar, pricing their exports in the dollar provides a natural hedge against movements in the dollar exchange rate (Casas, Meleshchuk, and Timmer, 2020). We test for those complementarities by exploiting variation in the degree of U.S. dollar indebtedness across countries.」と説明されている。Gopinath and Stein(2020)については「銀行業、貿易、および支配通貨の制定 - himaginary’s diary」参照。
*2:本文では「Another potential explanation for the cross-country variation may stem from the country- or region-specific characteristics of the composition of foreign tourists. While countries in the Caribbean may choose to invoice their hotels in the U.S. dollar given the proximity and the large share of U.S. tourists for the local markets, small tourism-dependent countries close to Europe may choose to use the euro. To capture this effect, for each tourism destination country, we define a “country-specific dominant currency,” which we dub CSDC, as the currency of the country where the largest share of tourists resides.」と説明されている。
*3:本文では「Under the traditional Mundell-Fleming framework, an exchange rate depreciation should have a positive effect on export volumes. This traditional Mundell-Fleming framework, however, has been called into question by the recent development of the dominant currency pricing (DCP) literature. The extensive use of the U.S. dollar in setting prices for international trade, regardless of the origin or the destination of trade flows, can mute the reaction of export volumes to exchange rate movements (Gopinath, 2015; Goldberg and Tille, 2008; Gopinath et al., 2020). While the DCP literature has presented strong evidence of U.S. dollar pricing in the international trade of goods, empirical evidence on the sensitivity of services flows to exchange rate movements is scarce. In this paper, we zero in on one important service sector—international tourism—to shed light on the exchange rate elasticities of services trade and prices.」と説明されている。
