というテーマを扱ったNBER論文が上がっている。論文のタイトルは「Pandemics, Vaccines and Corporate Earnings」で、著者はHarrison Hong(コロンビア大)、Jeffrey Kubik(シラキュース大)、Neng Wang(コロンビア大)、Xiao Xu(同)、Jinqiang Yang(上海財経大)。

We estimate a model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. An unexpected pandemic lowers current earnings due to costly mitigation and reduces growth rates. Damage depends on the expected arrival of a vaccine that reverts earnings to normal. Using this model, we infer from analysts' earnings forecasts that, as of mid-May 2020, an effective vaccine is expected in 0.96 years (95% bootstrap CI [0.72,1.72]). Growth rates are on average 25% lower in the interim. Levered and face-to-face industries would benefit the most from a vaccine arrival. Analysts' expectations imply that the vaccine expected for the middle of 2021 is a silver bullet for corporate earnings.


Mostly Economicsが紹介したNBER論文をもう一丁。以下はPaul Gompers(ハーバード大)、Will Gornall(ブリティッシュコロンビア大)、Steven N. Kaplan(シカゴ大)、Ilya A. Strebulaev(スタンフォード大)による表題のNBER論文(原題は「Venture Capitalists and COVID-19」)の要旨。

We survey over 1,000 institutional and corporate venture capitalists (VCs) at more than 900 different firms to learn how their decisions and investments have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We compare their survey answers to those provided by a large sample of VCs in early 2016 and analyzed in Gompers, Gornall, Kaplan, and Strebulaev (2020). VCs have slowed their investment pace (71% of normal) and expect to invest at 81% of their normal pace over the coming year. Not surprisingly, they have devoted more time to guiding the portfolio companies through the pandemic. VCs report that 52% of their portfolio companies are positively affected or unaffected by the pandemic; 38% are negatively affected; and 10% are severely negatively affected. Overall, they expect the pandemic to have a small negative effect on their fund IRRs (-1.6%) and MOICs (-0.07). Surprisingly, we find little change in the allocation of their time to helping portfolio companies relative to looking for new investments. In general, we find only modest differences between institutional and corporate VCs.


Mostly Economicsも取り上げているが、表題のNBER論文をCoibionとGorodnichenkoのコンビらが上げているungated版)。原題は「Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations」で、著者はOlivier Coibion(テキサス大オースティン校)、Yuriy Gorodnichenko(UCバークレー)、Edward S. Knotek II(クリーブランド連銀)、Raphael Schoenle(ブランダイス大)。

Using a daily survey of U.S. households, we study how the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its new strategy of average inflation targeting affected households’ expectations. Starting with the day of the announcement, there is a very small uptick in the minority of households reporting that they had heard news about monetary policy relative to prior to the announcement, but this effect fades within a few days. Those hearing news about the announcement do not seem to have understood the announcement: they are no more likely to correctly identify the Fed’s new strategy than others, nor are their expectations different. When we provide randomly selected households with pertinent information about average inflation targeting, their expectations still do not change in a different way than when households are provided with information about traditional inflation targeting.


というNBER論文をエドワード・グレイザーとアンドレイ・シュライファーらが上げているungated版)。原題は「Measuring Property Rights Institutions」で、著者はSimeon Djankov(ピーターソン研究所)、Edward Glaeser(ハーバード大)、Valeria Perotti(世銀)、Andrei Shleifer(ハーバード大)。

How do the different elements in the standard bundle of property rights – such as the right of possession or the right of transfer – differentially impact outcomes, such as urban development? This paper incorporates insecure property rights into a standard model of urban land prices and density, and makes predictions about investment in land and property, informality, and the efficiency of land use. Our empirical analysis links data on institutions related to land titling and transfer with multiple urban outcomes, from 190 countries. The evidence is generally consistent with the model’s predictions, and more broadly with the Demsetz’s (1967) approach to property rights institutions. Indeed, we document world-wide improvements in the quality of institutions facilitating property transfer over time.
標準的な財産権の括りにおいて、異なる要素――所有権と譲渡権など――は都市開発などの結果にどのように違う形で影響するだろうか? 本稿は、確定していない財産権を都市の地価と密度の標準的なモデルに織り込み、土地と財産への投資、未登記の状況、および土地の利用の効率性に関して予測を行う。我々の実証分析では、190ヶ国の土地の登記と譲渡に関する制度データを、様々な都市の最終形態と結び付けた。実証結果は概ねモデルの予測と整合的であり、より大きくはデムゼッツ(1967)の財産権制度のアプローチと整合的である。実際のところ、我々は、譲渡を円滑化する制度の質が世界全体で時間と共に改善したことを立証した。


Weak possession rights reduce the incentives to build better housing or own more land. The empirical link between limited title and urban slums is in line with our theory. Limited ability to transfer property makes it difficult to match workplace with home location. The empirical link between the number of procedures needed to transfer property and traffic congestion is also consistent with our model. Finally, we also showed that the development of housing loan finance relies on both title and transfer institutions, but especially the latter.


こちらのエントリなどで紹介した、Covid-19のイベントスタディを精力的に行っている研究者のグループが、今回は表題のNBER論文を上げている。原題は「The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19」で、著者はDhaval M. Dave(ベントレー大)、Andrew I. Friedson(コロラドデンバー校)、Drew McNichols(UCサンディエゴ)、Joseph J. Sabia(サンディエゴ州立大)*1

Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Between August 7 and August 16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual motorcycle rally. Large crowds, coupled with minimal mask-wearing and social distancing by attendees, raised concerns that this event could serve as a COVID-19 “super-spreader.” This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on social distancing and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that (i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and (ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events. Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell. Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade. Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows. Descriptive evidence suggests these effects may be muted in states with stricter mitigation policies (i.e., restrictions on bar/restaurant openings, mask-wearing mandates). We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of as much as $12.2 billion.

*1:これまでの常連だった日系と思しきKyutaro Matsuzawa(サンディエゴ州立大)は今回は謝辞を受ける側に回っている。



という「Personality and Individual Differences」掲載予定論文をタイラー・コーエンが紹介している(7月時点の日本語紹介記事1234)。論文の原題は「Pandemic practice: Horror fans and morbidly curious individuals are more psychologically resilient during the COVID-19 pandemic」で、著者はColtan Scrivner(シカゴ大)、John A. Johnson(ペンシルベニア州立大)、Jens Kjeldgaard-Christiansen(オーフス大)、Mathias Clasen(同)。

One explanation for why people engage in frightening fictional experiences is that these experiences can act as simulations of actual experiences from which individuals can gather information and model possible worlds. Conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study (n = 310) tested whether past and current engagement with thematically relevant media fictions, including horror and pandemic films, was associated with greater preparedness for and psychological resilience toward the pandemic. Since morbid curiosity has previously been associated with horror media use during the COVID-19 pandemic, we also tested whether trait morbid curiosity was associated with pandemic preparedness and psychological resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that fans of horror films exhibited greater resilience during the pandemic and that fans of “prepper” genres (alien-invasion, apocalyptic, and zombie films) exhibited both greater resilience and preparedness. We also found that trait morbid curiosity was associated with positive resilience and interest in pandemic films during the pandemic. Taken together, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to frightening fictions allow audiences to practice effective coping strategies that can be beneficial in real-world situations.


というECB論文をMostly Economicsが紹介している。論文の原題は「Macroeconomic risks across the globe due to the Spanish Flu」で、著者は同行のRoberto A. De SantisとWouter Van der Veken。

We characterise the distribution of expected GDP growth during the Great Influenza Pandemic (known also as Spanish Flu) using a non-linear method in a country panel setting. We show that there are non-negligible risks of large GDP losses with the 5% left tail of the distribution suggesting a drop in the typical country’s real per capita GDP equal to 29.1% in 1918, 10.9% in 1919 and 3.6% in 1920. Moreover, the fall in per capita GDP after the Spanish flu was on average particularly large in low-income countries. Particularly, the size of the GDP drop in the lower tail of the distributions is high for higher income countries and immense for lower income countries. As for the United States, the estimated size of the recession in the lower tail of the distribution following the Spanish flu is not negligible.


Barro et al. (2020) show that the loss in terms of real per capita GDP for a typical country due to the Spanish flu amounts to 6.0% cumulated over the three year period 1918-1920. Using the non-linear panel model, we corroborate the cumulated drop in economic activity of about 7.2% for the typical country due to the pandemic disease, about 70% of the economic damage occurring in the first year.

論文の表では日本についての結果も示されており、1918-1920年の各年の平均的な落ち込みがそれぞれ-1.43、-0.65、-1.32(標準的な国は-4.86、-1.74、-0.57)、レフトテールリスクの落ち込みがそれぞれ-9.00、-4.13、-8.32(標準的な国は-29.12、-10.86、-3.55)(単位はいずれも%)と最初の2年の落ち込みは相対的に小さいが3年目が大きい形となっている。なお、一人当たり実質GDPの中央値を基に低所得国と高所得国を分けた分析では日本は低所得国に分類されており、そちらの分析では1918-1920年の各年の平均的な落ち込みがそれぞれ-1.73、-0.73、-1.57(標準的な低所得国は-7.27、-2.75、-0.86、標準的な高所得国は-3.50、-0.89、-0.26)、 レフトテールリスクの落ち込みがそれぞれ-15.02、-8.15、-14.04(標準的な低所得国は-52.13、-22.14、-8.98、標準的な高所得国は-15.35、-1.07、-1.30)となっている。