というNBER論文が上がっている。原題は「Was Pandemic Fiscal Relief Effective Fiscal Stimulus? Evidence from Aid to State and Local Governments」で、著者はJeffrey Clemens（UCサンディエゴ）、Philip G. Hoxie（同）、Stan Veuger（AEI）。
以下はその要旨。
We use an instrumental-variables estimator reliant on variation in congressional representation to analyze the effects of federal aid to state and local governments across all four major pieces of COVID-19 response legislation. Through September 2021, we estimate that the federal government allocated $855,000 for each state or local government job-year preserved. Our baseline confidence interval allows us to rule out estimates of less than $433,000. Our estimates of effects on aggregate income and output are centered on zero and imply modest if any spillover effects onto the broader economy. We discuss aspects of the pandemic context, which include the surprising resilience of state and local tax revenues as well as of broader macroeconomic conditions, that may underlie the small employment and stimulative impacts we estimate in comparison with previous research.
（拙訳）
我々は、議会における代表性の違いに基づく操作変数法の推計値を用いて*1、コロナ禍対策の主要4法案の州・地方政府への連邦補助金の効果を分析した*2。2021年9月までの期間について、維持された州・地方政府の仕事・年につき855,000ドルを連邦政府が割り当てた、と我々は推計する。我々のベースラインの信頼区間によれば、433,000ドル以下の推計値は除外できる。総所得と総生産への効果の推計値の中央値はゼロで、経済全体への波及効果は、あったとしても小幅なものであったことを示唆している。我々は、マクロ経済全体の状況だけでなく州・地方の税収が驚くほど回復した、というコロナ禍の下で見られた傾向について論じる。そのことが、我々の推計した雇用や景気刺激の効果が従来の研究に比べて小さかったことの背景にあると思われる。
*1:本文からの引用：In this paper’s analysis, we use a state’s number of congressional representatives per million residents to instrument for federal aid per capita. Clemens and Veuger (2021a) establish a relationship between the relative representation of states in Congress and the amount of aid they were allocated during the pandemic. Smaller states, such as Wyoming, receive relatively more representation per capita as each state is guaranteed two senators regardless of population, ensuring that Wyomingite voices are relatively more powerful in legislative negotiations.
*2:本文からの引用：We analyze the fiscal assistance resulting from four major pieces of legislation during the COVID-19 pandemic: the CARES Act, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA), the Response and Relief Act (RRA), and the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA). Taken together, these packages constituted a massive relief effort that provided as much as $6 trillion in income support to households, a mix of loans, grants, and tax relief to firms and non-profits, funding for (public) health efforts, and intragovernmental grants to subnational governments. This final category includes almost $900 billion in funds for state, local, territorial, and tribal governments, as well as the District of Columbia. We focus on the impact of these funds across the 50 states.
