というNBER論文が上がっている(H/T タイラー・コーエン)。原題は「On the persistence of the China Shock」で、著者はDavid Autor(MIT)、David Dorn(チューリッヒ大)、Gordon H. Hansonハーバード大)。以下はブルッキングス研究所のサイトでの論文紹介記事(ungated版もそこでリンクしている)からの引用。

Until recently, the prevailing view among many economists has been that workers who lost jobs from trade competition would move to labor markets with industries less exposed to trade. That might depress wages in those areas, but the effect of the trade shock would be diffuse. However, the authors found that the China trade shock generated only modest migration from affected areas, mostly by foreign-born workers and younger native-born adults (ages 25-39).
They looked at manufacturing employment in areas exposed to import competition from 2001 to 2019. They found that effect of the trade shock was concentrated in labor markets with below-average levels of college-educated workers and above-average shares of industries specializing in producing goods competing with imports from China. The effects grew increasingly negative until 2013, and then persisted through at least 2018, when their data end.
Some displaced workers benefited from the Labor Department’s Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program, but overall its effect on per capita income in trade-exposed areas was “vanishingly small,” the authors write. The Trump administration’s trade war with China appears to have succeed in raising the prices of U.S.-made goods but not in expanding employment in the industries receiving import protection, they write.
“Presumably, job loss is equally scarring, no matter whether the underlying cause of displacement is import competition or technological change,” the authors note. Instead of protectionist measures such as tariffs or nationally uniform assistance such as the TAA, they observe that “fostering employment growth in regions beset by chronic joblessness”—whether from import competition or other causes—“may be the most comprehensive way to help workers facing persistent negative local labor demand shocks.”
Hanson, in an interview with The Brookings Institution, said place-based policies could take the form of increased unemployment insurance payments or an increased earned income tax credit in labor markets hit by shocks, as well as regionally tailored training programs for displaced workers and assistance and consulting for remaining employers.
“Nothing in our paper challenges the idea that free trade raises gross domestic product,” he said. “The question is what public policies do we want in place to ensure freer trade doesn’t generate concentrated pockets of hardship.”