所得と消費の不均一性への金融政策ショックの効果について

というNBER論文が上がっているungated版)。原題は「On the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Income and Consumption Heterogeneity」で、著者はMinsu Chang(ジョージタウン大)、Frank Schorfheide(ペンシルベニア大)。
以下はその要旨。

In this paper we use the functional vector autoregression (VAR) framework of Chang, Chen, and Schorfheide (2024) to study the effects of monetary policy shocks (conventional and informational) on the cross-sectional distribution of U.S. earnings (from the Current Population Survey), consumption, and financial income (both from the Consumer Expenditure Survey). We find that a conventional expansionary monetary policy shock reduces earnings inequality, in large part by lifting individuals out of unemployment. There is a weakly positive effect on consumption inequality and no effect on financial income inequality, but credible bands are wide.
(拙訳)
本稿で我々は、Chang, Chen, and Schorfheide (2024) の機能ベクトル自己回帰(VAR)*1の枠組みを用いて、金融政策ショック(従来型および情報型)が米国の収入(人口動態調査から)、消費、および金融所得(共に消費者支出調査から)のクロスセクション分布に与える影響を調べた。従来型の拡張的な金融ショックは、個人を失業状態から抜け出させることを主因として、収入格差を減じることを我々は見い出した。消費格差には弱い正の効果があり、金融所得格差には効果が無かったが、信用区間は広かった。

結論部では「The empirical results in our paper could be used to assess the quantitative implications of HANK models more formally」と述べており、HANKモデルの実証分析に使うことを意図していることを明確化している*2

*1:参照先の論文のWPでは、「VARs can be viewed as approximations to the equilibrium dynamics arising from linearized RA models and have proved to be useful for the evaluation and development of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Moreover, VARs are widely used in empirical macroeconomics independently of DSGE models, to study business cycle fluctuations, the propagation of shocks, and to generate macroeconomic forecasts. In this paper, we develop a fVAR that is embedded in a state space model and can play a similar role as traditional VARs in environments in which macroeconomic aggregates interact with cross-sectional distributions.」と説明している。

*2:金融政策ショックが所得格差を減じる効果については、導入部で「The estimated effects are broadly consistent with the heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model (HANK) with indivisible labor studied by Ma (2021).」としている(Maの論文のWPはこちら)。ちなみに参照論文でも、前注の引用部の続きで「While we will not establish a formal link between our functional model and the solution of HA models, it does capture the salient features and provides a natural reference model for the evaluation of HA models. Moreover, just as VARs, our functional model can be used as a stand-alone tool for empirical work in macroeconomics.」と述べている。