10/9付けFT Alphaville記事でイザベラ・カミンスカが、ボラティリティの専門家でArtemis Capital Managementなるファンドを率いるChristopher Coleの興味深い考察を引用している。

If financial markets are the mirror reflecting a vision of our economy third dimension markets measure the distortion in the reflection. If you are familiar with Plato’s Allegory of the Cave volatility is best understood as our collective trust in the shadows on the wall. In the 1985 work “Simulacra and Simulation” French philosopher Jean Baudrillard recalls the Borges fable about the cartographers of a great Empire who drew a map of its territories so detailed it was as vast as the Empire itself. According to Baudrillard as the actual Empire collapses the inhabitants begin to live their lives within the abstraction believing the map to be real (his work inspired the classic film “The Matrix” and the book is prominently displayed in one scene). The map is accepted as truth and people ignorantly live within a mechanism of their own design and the reality of the Empire is forgotten (10). This fable is a fitting allegory for our modern financial markets.


To get all Matrix on this, it’s like saying the market has a clear-cut choice to make. It can either continue to take the blue pill and fool itself into thinking everything is as it always was — despite the glitch in the Matrix that was 2008 — or dare to see the economic reality for what it is by taking the red pill.

Naturally, the risk associated with taking the red pill is impossible to quantify — it could, after all, compromise our very understanding of economic reality.

It’s understandable, in that context, that dishing out the blue pill seems so much more palatable to so many. We’ve called this the makings of a Jedi economy.


In the postmodern economy market expectations are more important to fundamental growth than the reality of supply and demand the market was designed to mimic. Our fiscal well being is now prisoner to financial and monetary engineering of our own design. Central banking strategy does not hide this fact with the goal of creating the optional illusion of economic prosperity through artificially higher asset prices to stimulate the real economy. In doing so they are exposing us all to hyperreality or what Baudrillard called “the desert of real”.
While it may be natural to conclude that the real economy is slave to the shadow banking system this is not a correct interpretation of the Baudrillard philosophy. The higher concept is that our economy is the shadow banking system… the Empire is gone and we are living ignorantly within the abstraction. The Fed must support the shadow banking oligarchy because without it the abstraction would fail.


First Dimension = Economy
Second Dimension = Equity and Credit Markets
Third Dimension = Derivative markets
Fourth Dimensions = Derivatives on Derivatives / Vol of Vol / Correlation


*3:このボードリヤールの言葉から取ったマトリックスのモーフィアスの台詞「Welcome to the desert of the real」(cf. youtube)がカミンスカのエントリのタイトルになっている。こちらのサイトでは、その点について以下のように解説している:
Morpheus quotes Baudrillard, saying "Welcome to the desert of the real." This is a basic tenet of Baurillard's philosophy: the concept of the third order of simualcrum. The first order consists of imitation that has substance, that refers to an original work, like a painting or a manuscript. An example might be a hand-rendered reproduction of a famous painting. This reproduction, or counterfeit, represents the original, which preceded it. The second order of simulacrum is mass production. There is no original work for the items to represent, and the reproductions are all of equal importance. The "desert of the real" refers to the third order of simulacrum. The third order is that of the "hyperreal", and need not bear any resemblance to anything in the real world. If it does seek to imitate reality, it often does too good a job. The third order is constructed from codes and models. According to Baudrillard, postmodern society has rejected the concept of an "original," for something that represents a thing in a more authentic way than itself. Currently, in the third order of simulacrum, simulacra are more real than the original code they imitate, if in fact they imitate any at all, and the third-order simulacra is often the only existing representation.
Today abstraction is no longer that of the map, the double, the mirror, or the concept. Simulation is no longer that of a territory, a referential being, or a substance. It is the generation by models of a real without origin or reality: a hyperreal. The territory no longer precedes the map, nor does it survive it. It is nevertheless the map that precedes the territory - precession of simulacra - that engenders the territory, and if one must return to the fable, today it is the territory whose shreds slowly rot across the extent of the map. It is the real, and not the map, whose vestiges persist here and there in the deserts that are no longer those of the Empire, but ours. The desert of the real itself.