というNBER論文をCoibionとGorodnichenkoのコンビらが上げている。原題は「The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending」で、著者はOlivier Coibion(テキサス大オースティン校)、Yuriy Gorodnichenko(UCバークレー)、Michael Weber(シカゴ大)。

We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households’ spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of survey participants report income and wealth losses due to the corona virus, with the average losses being $5,293 and $33,482 respectively. Aggregate consumer spending dropped by 31 log percentage points with the largest drops in travel and clothing. We find that households living in counties that went into lockdown earlier expect the unemployment rate over the next twelve months to be 13 percentage points higher and continue to expect higher unemployment at horizons of three to five years. They also expect lower future inflation, report higher uncertainty, expect lower mortgage rates for up to 10 years, and have moved out of foreign stocks into liquid forms of savings. The imposition of lockdowns can account for much of the decline in employment in recent months as well as declines in consumer spending. While lockdowns have pronounced effects on local economic conditions and households’ expectations, they have little impact on approval ratings of Congress, the Fed, or the Treasury but lead to declines in the approval of the President.
我々は、10,000人以上の回答者からなる何回かに分けて実施した独自のサーベイを用い、COVID-19による地域のロックダウンのタイミングの違いが、地域レベルの家計支出とマクロ経済予想に結果としてどのように影響するかを調べた。サーベイ参加者の約50%がコロナウイルスによる所得と資産の損失を報告しており、それぞれ平均5,293ドルと33,482 ドルだった。全体の消費者支出は31対数パーセンテージポイント低下し、最大の低下は旅行と衣類であった。早くロックダウンを実施した郡の家計は、今後12ヶ月の失業率を13パーセンテージポイント高く予想しており、今後3年から5年の期間についてもより高い失業率を予想していた。彼らはまた、今後10年までについて、より低い将来のインフレを予想し、より高い不確実性を報告し、より低い不動産金利を予想し、外国株を手仕舞いして流動性の高い貯蓄形態に移行していた。ロックダウンの実施は、ここ数ヶ月の雇用の低下ならびに消費支出の減少のかなりの割合を説明できる。ロックダウンは地域の経済状態と家計の予想に顕著な影響を与えた一方で、議会やFRB財務省の支持率にはあまり影響しなかった。だが、大統領への支持率の低下にはつながった。


It is beyond the scope of this paper to establish whether this economic cost is sufficiently small to justify lockdown policies that likely save many thousands of lives. However, our analysis should inform policymakers about at least one part of the tradeoff they face because these costs are relevant in thinking about how long to maintain lockdown policies, especially since the costs are likely increasing with duration. The significant costs that we identify suggest that policymakers should be wary of focusing only on the benefits of lockdown policies and not carefully weighing them against their costs. Our analysis should also provide input for policies aimed to mitigate the consequences of the COVID recession. For example, we document that many households effectively default on their debt payments and rents which can start a wave of bankruptcies and evictions and thus delay the recovery. Low expectations for inflation and mortgage interest rates will likely limit the power of monetary policy. While households expect normalcy to return within six months, the ferocity and speed of this storm is such that the damage may be rather persistent. To avoid adverse hysteresis-like scenarios, policymakers may have to consider less conventional measures such as extended periods of fiscal stimulus, debt forgiveness, taking stakes in businesses (including financial institutions), and more aggressive quantitative easing.