と12/15のEconomist's ViewでTim Duyが問うている。

I am torn on the wisdom of this move. On one hand, using the Great Depression as a guide, the appropriate policy direction appears clear – flood the markets with liquidity, coupled with massive fiscal stimulus. This is the track the policy train is on. I completely understand this policy in a closed economy suffering from insufficient demand relative to supply. But when faced with a large open economy with a substantial current account deficit, the back of my mind screams “caution.” It is an itch I can’t scratch.


Economist's View: Fed Watch: What If the Analogy is Wrong?

彼のこの疑問は今に始まったわけではなく、本ブログの9/13エントリで取り上げたEconomist's Viewエントリでも同様の懸念を示していた。




ニッポンの不況は(Wow×4)米国が羨む(Yeah×4) - himaginaryの日記

また、その懸念は彼のものだけでなく、彼が引用するnaked capitalismでも同様の懸念が示されている。

Now to my doubts about the proposed remedies, namely monster stimulus and monetary easing. First, as mentioned before, the analogy is to the US in the Depression, which we have said repeatedly before is questionable. The US in the 1920s was the world's biggest creditor, exporter, and manufacturer. Our position then is analogous to China's now. Indeed, Keynes in the 1930s urged America to take even more aggressive measures, and argued that it was not reasonable for the US to expect over-consuming, debt-burdened countries like the UK and France to take up the demand slack. So even though most economists are invoking Keynes, it isn't clear he's prescribe such aggressive stimulus for the US and UK now.


"Deflation has become inevitable" | naked capitalism

このnaked capitalismのYves Smithの意見が正しいとすると、来るべき米国の大規模政策も、既に瓦解してしまったグローバル経済を維持しようとするやけっぱちの試みに過ぎない、とDuyは評している(…いわゆるブレトンウッズ2.0も、哀れハンプティ・ダンプティと同じ運命を辿り、王様の馬みんなと王様の家来みんなでも元に戻せない、といったところか)。


銅鑼衣紋 2008/09/28 15:49

2008-09-28 - himaginaryの日記

では、もし大恐慌を教訓にした今の政策方針が間違っていたらどうなるのか? Duyはドルの大暴落と、それに続く貨幣切り下げ競争の可能性を示唆している。

The threat, of course, is that the Fed the Fed[sic] and Treasury are setting the stage for a disorderly adjustment of the Dollar by ignoring the imbalance. Without the external adjustment in place, pushing rates to zero, flooding the economy with money, and pumping out hundreds of billions of new debt threatens to all pull the rug out from under the Dollar. Even more worrisome, however, is that surplus nations respond with competitive depreciations as they also seek to maintain the fundamental imbalance. We all race to the bottom together.


Economist's View: Fed Watch: What If the Analogy is Wrong?


That leaves the yen, and the option of intervention to weaken it to try to boost exports.
If the yen surges again it would be legitimate to intervene to slow the rise.
Japan would also have a case if China took sustained action to weaken the renminbi.
In and of itself, however, a weak yen would add nothing to global demand, and be simply a beggar-thy-neighbour attempt to corner such demand as there is.

フィナンシャルタイムズ曰く、日本よ、匍匐前進!: 極東ブログ



なぜ国家は衰亡するのか (PHP新書)

なぜ国家は衰亡するのか (PHP新書)